FORECAST ERROR CHANGES IN THE SOLAR ENERGY SECTOR

Introduction:

Forecasting in the solar energy sector is a critical component for efficient and secure grid operation. Accurate forecasting helps in planning resource requirements and mitigating any deviations in the scheduling of power generation. In this blog, we will explore the intricacies of forecasting in the solar energy sector, the role of the Qualified Coordinating Agency (QCA), and the implications of forecast errors.

The Role of Forecasting in Solar Energy

Forecasting of wind and solar energy injection at pooling substations or on a state-level aggregate basis is essential for the overall planning of resource requirements. The Tamil Nadu State Load Despatch Centre (TNSLDC) is responsible for this task, ensuring secure grid operation. Here are some key points regarding forecasting in the solar energy sector:

• Aggregate Forecasting: Forecasting can be done by the TNSLDC or adopted from forecasts provided by the QCA.
• Charges for Forecasting: If a QCA adopts the TNSLDC's forecast, a charge of Rs. 2,000 per pooling substation per day is incurred.
• Error Handling: Any errors in the forecast resulting in deviations are borne by the concerned generators through their QCA.

Submission and Revision of Forecasts

The process of submitting and revising forecasts is structured and detailed to ensure accuracy and reliability:

• Day-Ahead Forecast: Submission must be done in accordance with the timelines specified in the IEGC/State Grid Code, on a 15-minute time block basis in MW up to two decimal places.

• Revisions: QCAs can revise the schedule on the TNSLDC web-based software, effective from the sixth time block, with a maximum of sixteen revisions allowed per day.

Key Points

QCA Responsibilities:

• Provide state-level aggregate forecasts for wind/solar generators.
• Adopt forecasts by TNSLDC if preferred.
• Pay charges for using TNSLDC forecasts.
• Indemnify TNSLDC against commercial impacts of forecast errors.

Forecast Submission Process:

• Day-ahead forecasts on a 15-minute basis.
• Revisions allowed up to 16 times a day, effective from the sixth time block.
• Use of web-based software for submission and revisions.

Types of Pooling Substations:

• Single generator or group of generators connected at different voltage levels.
• Separate forecasting for intra-state and inter-state power selling.
• Deviation charges are distributed among generators based on internal mechanisms.

Latest News and Developments:

• India's Solar Forecasting Initiative: India has launched various initiatives to improve solar forecasting accuracy, including collaborations with international experts and the use of advanced forecasting models.
• Impact of Weather Variability: Recent studies highlight the challenges posed by weather variability on solar energy forecasts, prompting further investment in research and technology to mitigate these effects.

Conclusion

Accurate forecasting is vital for the efficient and secure operation of the solar energy grid. With the integration of advanced technologies and structured processes, the solar energy sector can better manage forecast errors and ensure a reliable power supply. Staying updated with the latest trends and developments in forecasting will help stakeholders optimize their operations and contribute to the growth of renewable energy.